Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Evolution

Apparently, sales of hybrid cars are skyrocketing. This is, of course, good news for a number of reasons. But, it's interesting too because it shows why most doomsday scenarios don't actually play out.

See, the planet is gradually running out of fuel. The doomsday scenario was that we will run out, people will fight for fuel, and the world will be more like Mad Max. I've actually noted here that we are due to run out in 2045.

But, what I didn't think of was the fact that, as fuel becomes scarce, prices will rise, and people won't want to pay the high gas prices. So, of course, they want hybrids! Eventually, I think we may be able to switch over all drivers to electric cars and avert any sort of crises. This is great because it's better for the environment, reduces the Middle East's influence in the world, and might just be a lot cheaper for drivers.

The reason doomsday scenarios, like Malthusian starvation for instance, don't generally play out is because people can see them coming and modify their behavior. Maybe they'll choose not to; but, not if the solutions are actually cheaper than living with the problems.

No comments: