tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post7818132885118326659..comments2024-02-17T07:59:18.705-08:00Comments on Grad Student Madness: Looking Back on The Day AfterRufushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17762279210783841414noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-12279940632842849512007-10-31T05:45:00.000-07:002007-10-31T05:45:00.000-07:00massive use of electric cars would transfer the po...<I> massive use of electric cars would transfer the pollution burden to a (currently) stressed electric grid.</I><BR/><BR/>It doesn't have to be electric. I just meant that perhaps the situation changes with Iran as soon as someone either finds an enormous untapped oil reserve or figures out a way to live without oil.<BR/><BR/><I> You're trying to get my goat, aren't you?</I><BR/><BR/>Oh, I uh, meant maybe the Army core of engineers should be working on that!Rufushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17762279210783841414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-47836647377161379092007-10-30T22:18:00.000-07:002007-10-30T22:18:00.000-07:00I wonder how much this situation changes if someon...<I>I wonder how much this situation changes if someone invents a feasible eletric car.</I><BR/><BR/>Power has to come from somewhere - massive use of electric cars would transfer the pollution burden to a (currently) stressed electric grid.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I> Maybe NASA should be working on that.</I><BR/><BR/>You're trying to get my goat, aren't you?Brian Dunbarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12952894032434503816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-44216268027384684172007-10-30T06:03:00.000-07:002007-10-30T06:03:00.000-07:00Hiromi- It's interesting really- the world went fr...Hiromi- It's interesting really- the world went from being bipolar to being effectively unipolar. At least mentally no other world is currently possible. I'm not sure that's really sunk in yet.<BR/><BR/>Brian- I don't really see the US occupying Iran either. I wonder how much this situation changes if someone invents a feasible eletric car. Maybe NASA should be working on that.Rufushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17762279210783841414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-44751635116389033702007-10-29T20:14:00.000-07:002007-10-29T20:14:00.000-07:00hackers hacked by sticking the earpieces of phones...<I>hackers hacked by sticking the earpieces of phones into modems.</I><BR/><BR/>Ah, the good old days. No, I'm not that old; when I got into IT those were antiques. My first few years in IT were spent fooling around with file servers connected via leased 2400bps lines.<BR/><BR/><I>I was going to ask you if I was right in thinking that Star Wars was more of a pipe dream than anything else. But, I see an article about it on your page.</I><BR/><BR/>Well that's a link to a description of a theater missile defense test, which isn't nearly as tough as knocking down hundreds or thousands of ICBMs.<BR/><BR/>A pipe dream? I'm just a guy from Wisconsin - all I know about SDI is what I've read. I think SDI was two things;<BR/><BR/>- A ploy to force the Soviets to compete in an area (high tech) that we excelled at and at which they sucked.<BR/>- A long-term program to produce a missile defense.<BR/><BR/>The former is just good strategy no matter what the game. The latter .. brother I don't like the doctrine of MAD for a lot of reasons. One of them is that it seems that a system whose failure mode involves incinerating millions of the enemies civilians is a bad idea.<BR/><BR/>The other reason is that MAD assumes continued excellence on both sides. Nobody is good forever - and only one side has to slip.<BR/><BR/>Being able to shoot down missiles seems like a better bet - defensive systems are at least more moral than weapons that incinerate entire cities at a go. As well you force the opposition to spend money on defense.<BR/><BR/>And too .. if we had gotten to field a 'Star Wars' SDI it would have meant a need for a lot of space lift, plus the means to maintain satellites in orbit. All of this implies a space launch fleet and capability that would make the 2007 edition of the Shuttle fleet and ISS look like a brace of Ford Tri-Motors next to a fleet of 747s.<BR/><BR/>Pity the Soviet Union didn't last long enough to make that a reality.<BR/><BR/><I>I guess the big question is- If a country like Iran gets the nuke, which probably will happen in our lifetime, would deterrance work with them? I think it would, but I get the feeling that a lot of people don't agree with me.</I><BR/><BR/>MAD is supposed to work when both sides have parity. But game theory isn't my strong suit. One problem with the weaker player is that he can't hit the stronger one as hard, which would give the strong player an incentive to hit the weaker before he can achieve parity. Iran can't achieve parity no matter how hard they try, but I don't see the United States taking advantage of this and smearing Iran and occupying it - as the theory would seem to call for.<BR/><BR/>Maybe it depends on what Iran actually wants? You won't see much of this in the popular press. Do they want to Islam to sweep the world with the Caliph located in Tehran? Certainly some elements in that country do. Do they want to be king of the heap in their region? It's not an unreasonable ambition. One problem is that a center of gravity for the world's economy is there.<BR/><BR/>I don't think they want to nuke the United States - but some elements in their country might not above shopping a nuclear weapon to the wrong party who would not hesitate to do the deed.<BR/><BR/>We do live in interesting times.Brian Dunbarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12952894032434503816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-16526754271007548482007-10-29T20:09:00.000-07:002007-10-29T20:09:00.000-07:00It was one of those what-if-computers-kindasorta-g...It was one of those what-if-computers-kindasorta-get-sentient type computer movies.<BR/><BR/>And there was one other thing about the Cold War -- the suspense over Will Capitalism Win Out, or Will We Wear Grey Smocks and Call Each Other Comrade?<BR/><BR/>Now it's just "gimme triple skinny latte" in 50 languages.<BR/><BR/>but the one fear that hasn't gone away -- the fear of Big Brother. So I guess we're still in suspense to see whether all the promises of democracy come true.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-61772748464618258642007-10-29T16:19:00.000-07:002007-10-29T16:19:00.000-07:00I still haven't seen that one. Was that one with a...I still haven't seen that one. Was that one with a crazy computer? It seems like crazy computers/robots were big in 80s movies.Rufushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17762279210783841414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-53232276297251026152007-10-29T15:47:00.000-07:002007-10-29T15:47:00.000-07:00There was also that Matthew Broderick movie War Ga...There was also that Matthew Broderick movie War Games, in which not only did people worry about nuclear war, but hackers hacked by sticking the earpieces of phones into modems.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-143741494416039032007-10-29T14:33:00.000-07:002007-10-29T14:33:00.000-07:00Yeah, I remember an accident being a big possibili...Yeah, I remember an accident being a big possibility too. Especially given how bad communications used to be. <BR/><BR/>I remember people worrying that Star Wars technology would make the leaders cocky. I was going to ask you if I was right in thinking that Star Wars was more of a pipe dream than anything else. But, I see an article about it on your page.<BR/><BR/>As for MAD, I don't remember thinking much of it. Admittedly, The Day After aired when I was 9, so my analysis of geo-political strategy was lacking. Honestly, I sort of lost interest in the issue after that. I remember thinking the US/Soviet tension was really more of an adult issue. Then it was over. <BR/><BR/>With the terrorists, it seems that there could be a greater danger than there was with the Soviets because they seem to think the afterlife will be a lot better than this life. But their numbers are a lot lower and their resources are a lot smaller than any army I can think of. <BR/><BR/>I guess the big question is- If a country like Iran gets the nuke, which probably will happen in our lifetime, would deterrance work with them? I think it would, but I get the feeling that a lot of people don't agree with me.<BR/><BR/>I will check out that book, though it might have to wait for me to read it. I have a five foot stack of books to get through right now.Rufushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17762279210783841414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10166090.post-65602785250328627462007-10-29T13:50:00.000-07:002007-10-29T13:50:00.000-07:00We're also told that it's actually worse now becau...<I>We're also told that it's actually worse now because the 'Islamicists' want to die, although we were told that the Russians wanted to die too. </I><BR/><BR/>I do not know if Islamicists (I think that term's half-life is over) want to die - their religion is pretty bloody minded, if you take it literally.<BR/><BR/>But I just don't know.<BR/><BR/>MAD worked because the Soviets did not want to die. Anyone who really thought that back then (I know I didn't, and I knew that before Sting told me on the radio) was a thoughtless tool.<BR/><BR/>What got me going back when was not that war would start on purpose; that isn't war and only a madman would risk complete destruction* for Western Europe. <BR/><BR/>No, what got me was that if it _did_ it would all be a huge accident - as it nearly did happen at least once.<BR/><BR/><BR/>*Ralph Peters wrote an excellent novel called 'Red Army' - WW III from the Russian point of view. Excellent book. During the run up to war the Soviets are ready to nuke West Germany, use war gasses and generally be the Huns our worst fears said they were ... but were stopped. <BR/><BR/>Because the East German leadership got ahold of the war plans (intelligence leak) and got a little upset that all the fallout would make East Germany uninhabitable. They put a quick stop to that, forcing the Red Army to come up with a clever op-plan that did win the war for the Pact.<BR/><BR/>I do not claim that the Soviets would actually do this (how would I know?) but it's in keeping with the character of Generals who would risk nuclear war that contaminating East Germany is seen as acceptable in order to gain West Germany, the Low countries and hegemony over the rest of Europe.<BR/><BR/>The novel (if I may digress) is interesting in that the Soviets initiate a mind-f*** of the West German politicians and win the war. <BR/><BR/>They start the war then release tapes showing the results of war gas attacks (that did not happen) in West German towns, throw away a few divisions in useless assaults deep in the Allied rear to cause confusion, and imply that they'll regretfully gas more and more West Germans ...<BR/><BR/>The German pols fold just as the allies initiate a counterstrike that would set a faltering Soviet army on it's ass.<BR/><BR/>Anyway. Good book with a lot to say about the Soviets, how automation helps the military and how fog of war is a killer.<BR/><BR/>I am so glad we got through that time without lobbing bombs at each other.Brian Dunbarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12952894032434503816noreply@blogger.com